Victorian Labor Faces Alarm as New Poll Places Party Behind One Nation Ahead of 2026 Election
The Victorian Labor Party is grappling with a wave of internal anxiety and widespread skepticism following the release of a concerning new opinion poll. Conducted by DemosAU and PremierNational, the survey suggests a significant decline in the party’s electoral standing, placing it in third position behind both the Coalition and the populist One Nation party as the state looks toward the 2026 election cycle.
According to the data, which was first brought to public attention by the Herald Sun, Labor’s primary vote has plummeted by seven percentage points, landing at a historic low of just 18%. This figure places the incumbent government behind the Coalition, which currently leads with 33%, and notably behind One Nation, which has surged to 21%. Meanwhile, the Greens have seen a modest uptick, rising three points since September to reach 17%, effectively nipping at Labor’s heels.
In response to the findings, senior government figures have attempted to maintain a composed front. Ben Carroll, a key minister within the Victorian cabinet, declined to engage in detailed speculation regarding the poll results. His refusal to be drawn into the discussion reflects a broader strategy among Labor MPs to avoid validating what many within the party describe as ‘highly questionable’ or ‘outlier’ data. Despite the public dismissal, private conversations among Labor lawmakers reveal a palpable sense of unease regarding the party’s trajectory and its ability to connect with its traditional voter base.
Political analysts suggest that the rise of One Nation in the Victorian context is particularly alarming for Labor, as it indicates a shift in voter sentiment that could complicate the party’s path to forming a majority government. The decline to 18% represents a critical threshold, raising questions about whether the party is suffering from long-term incumbency fatigue or if specific policy decisions have alienated core supporters. The fact that the Greens are also gaining ground suggests that Labor is being squeezed from both the left and the right of the political spectrum.
While some Labor MPs have publicly questioned the methodology and the timing of the DemosAU/PremierNational poll, the sheer scale of the drop has forced a moment of introspection within the party ranks. As the 2026 election approaches, the government faces the dual challenge of addressing the concerns of a disillusioned electorate while attempting to stabilize its polling numbers. Whether this poll is an accurate reflection of the current political climate or merely a statistical anomaly remains a subject of intense debate, but the pressure on the current administration is undeniably mounting.
As the political landscape in Victoria continues to evolve, the coming months will be crucial for Labor to demonstrate its relevance and regain the trust of voters who appear increasingly willing to look toward alternatives. The party’s ability to pivot its messaging and address the issues driving voters toward One Nation and the Greens will likely define the narrative of the next two years.
Sources: The Guardian World
Aggregated summary. Original: The Guardian World